October 2008 CPI Data Out

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation. If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 post. The inflation so far for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 210.108 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.269%
National = [ ( 216.573 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.112%

Average month to month change in 2008:

  National CPI Southeast CPI National ? Southeast ?
12/2007 210.036 203.457    
01/2008 211.080 204.510 1.044 1.053
02/2008 211.693 205.060 0.613 0.550
03/2008 213.528 206.676 1.835 1.616
04/2008 214.823 208.085 1.295 1.409
05/2008 216.632 210.006 1.809 1.921
06/2008 218.815 212.324 2.183 2.318
07/2008 219.964 213.304 1.149 0.980
08/2008 219.086 212.387 (0.878) (0.917)
09/2008 218.783 212.650 (0.303) 0.263
10/2008 216.573 210.108 (2.210) (2.542)
Average 0.654 0.665

Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:

Est. Southeast CPI = 210.108 + ( 2 * 0.665 ) = 211.438
Est. National CPI = 216.573 + ( 2 * 0.654 ) = 217.880

Estimated inflation for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 211.438 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.923%
National = [ ( 217.880 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.735%

Now that gas prices have started coming down we are seeing inflation fall back into a normal range…


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Jason McDonald

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