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	<title>mcdonaldland &#187; Economics and Politics</title>
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	<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info</link>
	<description>A magical discussion of software, economics, and other assorted theories.</description>
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		<title>Someone else thinks you don&#8217;t get it too.</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2010/03/29/someone-else-thinks-you-dont-get-it-too/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2010/03/29/someone-else-thinks-you-dont-get-it-too/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Mar 2010 20:06:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/?p=236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As a follow up to my last post, &#8220;You just don&#8217;t get it.&#8220;, I saw this article today in Newsweek that has an interesting take on why congress doesn&#8217;t work. The fact that we have senators resigning because they feel that cross party feuding is preventing forward progress should serve as a wake up call to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a follow up to my last post, &#8220;<a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2010/03/28/you-just-dont-get-it/">You just don&#8217;t get it.</a>&#8220;, I saw this article today in Newsweek that has an interesting take on why congress doesn&#8217;t work. The fact that we have senators resigning because they feel that cross party feuding is preventing forward progress should serve as a wake up call to all congressional incumbents and hopefuls.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/235560/page/1">http://www.newsweek.com/id/235560/page/1</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>You just don&#8217;t get it.</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2010/03/28/you-just-dont-get-it/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2010/03/28/you-just-dont-get-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 16:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/?p=234</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve become increasingly frustrated lately with the state of politics in our nation (my nation, that is &#8211; the United States). It isn&#8217;t any one policy, program, or agenda that has me annoyed. While I do see both good and bad in healthcare reform, I&#8217;m not all that upset about it. I&#8217;m nervous about national [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve become increasingly frustrated lately with the state of politics in our nation (my nation, that is &#8211; the United States). It isn&#8217;t any one policy, program, or agenda that has me annoyed. While I do see both good and bad in healthcare reform, I&#8217;m not all that upset about it. I&#8217;m nervous about national debt but can handle it.</p>
<p>What I am finding myself growing more sick of each day is the constant fighting between the major political parties. These are the people that are supposed to be looking out for the well being of us, not themselves or their political parties. Instead there is a constant stream of rhetoric from all directions.</p>
<p>Some would argue that by being elected the views of the candidate effectively mimic the views of their region. However, this argument fails to recognize that the majority of elections are decided by a relatively thin margin. This means that the candidate could, at most, represent the total thoughts and desires of just over half of all constituents.</p>
<p>At a Tea Party rally Sarah Palin recently said, &#8220;Washington has broken faith with the people that they are to be serving&#8221;. She&#8217;s absolutely right &#8211; and she is part of the problem. Instead of focusing on roasting political adversaries our elected officials need to focus on fixing the problems. This applies to everyone, republicans, democrats, independents, etc.</p>
<p>If each official used their finger pointing energy to help solve problems our country would be much better off as a result. Bipartisan doesn&#8217;t mean split or whole &#8211; it means cooperative.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>2008 CPI and Inflation and Analysis</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2009/01/19/2008-cpi-and-inflation-and-analysis/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2009/01/19/2008-cpi-and-inflation-and-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:34:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2009/01/19/2008-cpi-and-inflation-and-analysis/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The final Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out for 2008 and we can now analyze the total inflation throughout 2008 and the projected impact of this on our economy. Let&#8217;s start with the numbers. Average month to month change in 2008: &#160; National CPI Southeast CPI National ? Southeast ? 12/2007 210.036 203.457 &#160; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The final Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out for 2008 and we can now analyze the total inflation throughout 2008 and the projected impact of this on our economy. Let&#8217;s start with the numbers.</p>
<p>Average month to month change in 2008:<br />
<center></p>
<table style="text-align: center; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt">
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National ?</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast ?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12/2007</td>
<td>210.036</td>
<td>203.457</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>01/2008</td>
<td>211.080</td>
<td>204.510</td>
<td>1.044</td>
<td>1.053</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>02/2008</td>
<td>211.693</td>
<td>205.060</td>
<td>0.613</td>
<td>0.550</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>03/2008</td>
<td>213.528</td>
<td>206.676</td>
<td>1.835</td>
<td>1.616</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>04/2008</td>
<td>214.823</td>
<td>208.085</td>
<td>1.295</td>
<td>1.409</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>05/2008</td>
<td>216.632</td>
<td>210.006</td>
<td>1.809</td>
<td>1.921</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>06/2008</td>
<td>218.815</td>
<td>212.324</td>
<td>2.183</td>
<td>2.318</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>07/2008</td>
<td>219.964</td>
<td>213.304</td>
<td>1.149</td>
<td>0.980</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>08/2008</td>
<td>219.086</td>
<td>212.387</td>
<td>(0.878)</td>
<td>(0.917)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>09/2008</td>
<td>218.783</td>
<td>212.650</td>
<td>(0.303)</td>
<td>0.263</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10/2008</td>
<td>216.573</td>
<td>210.108</td>
<td>(2.210)</td>
<td>(2.542)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11/2008</td>
<td>212.426</td>
<td>205.559</td>
<td>(4.148)</td>
<td>(4.549)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12/2008</td>
<td>210.228</td>
<td>203.501</td>
<td>(2.197)</td>
<td>(2.058)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="right"><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">0.016</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">0.004</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p align="left">The inflation so far for 2008:</p>
<p>Southeast = [ ( 203.501 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 0.022%<br />
National = [ ( 210.228 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 0.091%</p>
<p align="left">Great, right? Not so fast&#8230;</p>
<p align="left">I don&#8217;t want to start spouting doom and gloom but there are caveats to such flat growth.</p>
<p align="left"><strong>Inaccurate CPI Data</strong><br />
In 1995 the government very discretely changed how the CPI is calculated. The basic concept is that the old style of gathering CPI data looked at the basic cost of goods in a consumer &#8220;basket&#8221;. This means that the cost of bread, electricity, housing, etc., is compared over time to see what the differences are. Prior to 1995 this was a one to one comparison &#8211; a loaf of rye bread was compared with a loaf of rye bread. However, with the changes in 1995, the government is now taking substitutions into account. The basic idea is that if the cost of a loaf of rye bread goes too high consumers will shift preferences and buy a loaf of white bread instead. Because of this, the shift does not accurately take into account the true inflation. This is easily explained in an example.</p>
<p align="left">In January 2008 a loaf of white bread is $2.25 and a loaf of rye bread is $2.42. In February 2008 the same loaf of white bread has jumped to $3.14 and the same loaf of rye bread has jumped to $3.89. The government, specifically the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), takes a look at this and decides that people are unlikely to pay a 38% price increase for the loaf of rye bread and decide to use a cheaper substitute, the loaf of white bread, feeling that it is a more accurate depiction of consumer behavior. Despite the fact that both white bread and rye bread suffered a large increase, the BLS only records a jump of 23%, the difference between the 1/08 price of rye bread and the 2/08 price of white bread. In the old system of CPI calculations they would have recorded a 37% increase, the difference between the 1/08 and 2/08 price of rye bread. This means that the BLS has just artificially lowered rye bread inflation by 14%.</p>
<p align="left">Another stunning example of this is that the BLS chose, in 1983, to stop paying attention to the price of home ownership and instead focus on rental prices. This means that while the price of homes were artificially inflating, they were not being factored into the CPI, which is the primary means by which The Fed monitors the economy and takes adjusting actions, such as lowering or raising interest rates. In addition, the average rental prices &#8220;actually declined by a few points&#8221;, according to Dollars &amp; Sense magazine. This means that while home prices skyrocketed the decreasing prices in rental properties caused the CPI to artificially drop.</p>
<p align="left">This is clearly inaccurate and leads to artificially low numbers. John Williams, of Newsweek, estimates that today&#8217;s CPI figures could be under by around 7%. This means that, if measured accurately, the actual inflation for 2008 <em>COULD </em>be as high as 7.022% for the Southeast and 7.091% nationally. If we suddenly find ourselves in a state of deflation, we now have no way of knowing whether we are actually in a deflationary period or if government tinkering has skewed our view of the data and is shielding the fact that we are actually inflating.</p>
<p align="left"><strong>Impending Deflation </strong><br />
Let&#8217;s say we ignore the inaccuracies in the CPI we just went through. We are good now, right? Maybe.</p>
<p align="left">What is concerning is NOT that we are very, very close to an equilibrium state but that the annual trend just happened to put us at this equalibrium by the end of 2008. The year started off with inflation rising, which it continued to do until around June, when it started tapering off. Since June it is been constantly dropping, to the point where we have arrived back at our coveted equalibrium state of near zero. The problem with this is that if the trend continues we will very soon find ourselves in a state of deflation, which historically leads to rampant production cuts, job loss, and opens the door further for a depression. What we really want and need is small but steady inflation &#8211; somewhere between 1-3. But who knows, with the way the BLS is reporting CPI data, maybe we have actually been inflating this entire time.</p>
<p align="left">&nbsp;</p>
<p></center></p>
<p style="font-size: 8pt; font-style: italic"> If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/06/18/may-cpi-data-out/">May 2008 post</a>.<br />
For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/07/22/june-2008-cpi-data-out/">June 2008 post</a>.</p>
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		<title>October 2008 CPI Data Out</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/12/05/207/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/12/05/207/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Dec 2008 18:12:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/12/05/207/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation. If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.  If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/06/18/may-cpi-data-out/">May 2008 post</a>. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/07/22/june-2008-cpi-data-out/">June 2008 post</a>.  The inflation so far for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 210.108 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.269%<br />
National = [ ( 216.573 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.112%</p>
<p align="left">Average month to month change in 2008:</p>
<p><center></p>
<table style="text-align: center; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt">
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National ?</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast ?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12/2007</td>
<td>210.036</td>
<td>203.457</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>01/2008</td>
<td>211.080</td>
<td>204.510</td>
<td>1.044</td>
<td>1.053</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>02/2008</td>
<td>211.693</td>
<td>205.060</td>
<td>0.613</td>
<td>0.550</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>03/2008</td>
<td>213.528</td>
<td>206.676</td>
<td>1.835</td>
<td>1.616</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>04/2008</td>
<td>214.823</td>
<td>208.085</td>
<td>1.295</td>
<td>1.409</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>05/2008</td>
<td>216.632</td>
<td>210.006</td>
<td>1.809</td>
<td>1.921</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>06/2008</td>
<td>218.815</td>
<td>212.324</td>
<td>2.183</td>
<td>2.318</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>07/2008</td>
<td>219.964</td>
<td>213.304</td>
<td>1.149</td>
<td>0.980</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>08/2008</td>
<td>219.086</td>
<td>212.387</td>
<td>(0.878)</td>
<td>(0.917)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>09/2008</td>
<td>218.783</td>
<td>212.650</td>
<td>(0.303)</td>
<td>0.263</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10/2008</td>
<td>216.573</td>
<td>210.108</td>
<td>(2.210)</td>
<td>(2.542)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="right"><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">0.654</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">0.665</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p align="left">Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:</p>
<p align="center">Est. Southeast CPI = 210.108 + ( 2 * 0.665 ) = 211.438<br />
Est. National CPI = 216.573 + ( 2 * 0.654 ) = 217.880</p>
<p align="left"> Estimated inflation for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 211.438 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.923%<br />
National = [ ( 217.880 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.735%</p>
<p align="left">Now that gas prices have started coming down we are seeing inflation fall back into a normal range&#8230;</p>
<p></center></p>
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		<title>The Credit Crunch</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/11/25/the-credit-crunch/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/11/25/the-credit-crunch/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:46:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/11/25/the-credit-crunch/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have been a strong proponent that bank deregulation is at the heart of our current credit issues. While I have always posed the argument that banks deserve a fair level of autonomy, they also need to be watched and controlled very closely. I ran across a video that talks about how money is created [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have been a strong proponent that bank deregulation is at the heart of our current credit issues. While I have always posed the argument that banks deserve a fair level of autonomy, they also need to be watched and controlled very closely.</p>
<p>I ran across a <a href="http://blog.markturansky.com/archives/108" target="_blank">video that talks about how money is created</a> recently. In the video they site a study that maintains that a large majority of Americans have no clue how money is actually created. This is bad.</p>
<p>If you don&#8217;t know how money is created, <a href="http://blog.markturansky.com/archives/108" target="_blank">watch the videos</a>.  They are a concise overview of how money is created. They bake in a little doom and gloom that, while accurate, isn&#8217;t necessarily an immediate problem (although with credit crunches and bubbles it very well could become an immediate problem). They give a whirlwind tour of what is typically spanned over multiple college business courses. Most importantly, you will be more informed of how the current monetary practices and policies affect you and your fellow citizens.</p>
<p>Please keep in mind as you watch this that &#8220;feeding the beast&#8221;, as they call it, is a <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/07/21/economic-history/" target="_blank">ceteris paribus</a> situation.  They chose to overlook inflation with this scenario. As the amount of outstanding interest rises the numbers are offset by inflation. For example, $10 in interest today is the same actual dollar amount tomorrow, even if inflation has devalued your money such that the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(economics)" target="_blank">real value</a> of $10 is now actually $20. That is, what cost $10 yesterday now costs $20 for the exact same thing. Without diving down this rabbit hole too deep, just keep in mind that the doom and gloom in the video is not to be taken at face value.</p>
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		<title>Double Standards</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/11/03/double-standards/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/11/03/double-standards/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 20:49:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/11/03/double-standards/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I recently ran across an article that quoted a non United States citizen who said, &#8220;I really wish we could vote in your election — after all, it affects all of us, you know.&#8221; At first glance this annoys me. The people saying these things are the same people who condemn the United States on [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I recently ran across an article that quoted a non United States citizen who said, &#8220;I really wish we could vote in your election — after all, it affects all of us, you know.&#8221;</p>
<p>At first glance this annoys me. The people saying these things are the same people who condemn the United States on a myriad of issues. These are the people who claim to be for state sovereignty but openly state that they wish they could tread on ours.</p>
<p>But after I think about it I more, I take no offense. It is actually a complement.</p>
<p>Over the past decades there has been more an more of an erosion of the United States&#8217; political and economic power on the world stage. While the United States is still strong, we are finding that China, India, the EU, and more are challenging the way we have operated in the past and forcing us to improve just to maintain state. This erosion doesn&#8217;t mean that the United States is not formidable by any means &#8211; just that we are not as formidable as we once were (at least so the perception lies). The fact that our election is taking center stage in the world arena is a testament to the lingering power of our nation and our innate ability to hold sway over global politics.</p>
<p>This election is just another checkpoint. If we choose correctly we can continue to maintain our strength and potentially build back some of the erosions that the world has won. If we choose poorly we will continue to watch our political and economic power fade.</p>
<p>The world is watching.  Go vote.</p>
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		<title>September 2008 CPI Data Out</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/10/24/september-2008-cpi-data-out/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/10/24/september-2008-cpi-data-out/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Oct 2008 14:46:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/10/24/september-2008-cpi-data-out/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation. If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.</p>
<p>If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/06/18/may-cpi-data-out/">May 2008 post</a>. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/07/22/june-2008-cpi-data-out/">June 2008 post</a>.</p>
<p>The inflation so far for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 212.65 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 4.518%<br />
National = [ ( 218.783 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 4.165%</p>
<p>Average month to month change in 2008:</p>
<p><center></p>
<table style="text-align: center; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt">
<tr>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National ?</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast ?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12/2007</td>
<td>210.036</td>
<td>203.457</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>01/2008</td>
<td>211.080</td>
<td>204.510</td>
<td>1.044</td>
<td>1.053</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>02/2008</td>
<td>211.693</td>
<td>205.060</td>
<td>0.613</td>
<td>0.550</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>03/2008</td>
<td>213.528</td>
<td>206.676</td>
<td>1.835</td>
<td>1.616</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>04/2008</td>
<td>214.823</td>
<td>208.085</td>
<td>1.295</td>
<td>1.409</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>05/2008</td>
<td>216.632</td>
<td>210.006</td>
<td>1.809</td>
<td>1.921</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>06/2008</td>
<td>218.815</td>
<td>212.324</td>
<td>2.183</td>
<td>2.318</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>07/2008</td>
<td>219.964</td>
<td>213.304</td>
<td>1.149</td>
<td>0.980</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>08/2008</td>
<td>219.086</td>
<td>212.387</td>
<td>(0.878)</td>
<td>(0.917)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>09/2008</td>
<td>218.783</td>
<td>212.650</td>
<td>(0.303)</td>
<td>0.263</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="right"><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">0.972</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">1.021</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p align="left">Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:</p>
<p align="center">Est. Southeast CPI = 212.65 + ( 3 * 1.021 ) = 215.714<br />
Est. National CPI = 218.783 + ( 3 * 0.972 ) = 221.699</p>
<p align="left">Estimated inflation for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 215.714 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 6.024%<br />
National = [ ( 221.699 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 5.553%</p>
<p></center></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>August 2008 CPI Data Out</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/10/02/august-2008-cpi-data-out/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/10/02/august-2008-cpi-data-out/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 15:17:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/10/02/august-2008-cpi-data-out/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation. If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.</p>
<p>If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/06/18/may-cpi-data-out/">May 2008 post</a>. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/07/22/june-2008-cpi-data-out/">June 2008 post</a>.</p>
<p>The inflation so far for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 212.387 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 4.39%<br />
National = [ ( 219.086 - 210.036) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 4.31%</p>
<p>Average month to month change in 2008:</p>
<p><center></p>
<table style="text-align: center">
<tr>
<td></td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast CPI</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">National ?</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold">Southeast ?</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12/2007</td>
<td>210.036</td>
<td>203.457</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td >&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>01/2008</td>
<td>211.080</td>
<td>204.510</td>
<td >1.044</td>
<td>1.053</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>02/2008</td>
<td>211.693</td>
<td>205.060</td>
<td>0.613</td>
<td>0.550</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>03/2008</td>
<td>213.528</td>
<td>206.676</td>
<td>1.835</td>
<td>1.616</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>04/2008</td>
<td>214.823</td>
<td>208.085</td>
<td>1.295</td>
<td>1.409</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>05/2008</td>
<td>216.632</td>
<td>210.006</td>
<td>1.809</td>
<td>1.921</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>06/2008</td>
<td>218.815</td>
<td>212.324</td>
<td>2.183</td>
<td>2.318</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>07/2008</td>
<td>219.964</td>
<td>213.304</td>
<td>1.114</td>
<td>0.980</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>08/2008</td>
<td>219.086</td>
<td>212.387</td>
<td>(0.878)</td>
<td>(0.917)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="right"><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">1.127</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">1.116</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p></center>Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:</p>
<p align="center">Est. Southeast CPI = 212.387 + ( 4 * 1.116 ) = 216.851<br />
Est. National CPI = 219.086 + ( 4 * 1.127 ) = 223.594</p>
<p>Estimated inflation for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 216.851 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 6.58%<br />
National = [ ( 223.594 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 6.46%</p>
<p>Getting better &#8211; significantly better than last month even. Still a ways to go back to &#8220;normal&#8221; though.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Get your gas now&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/09/17/get-your-gas-now/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/09/17/get-your-gas-now/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 14:01:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/09/17/get-your-gas-now/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Panic causes price rises. Period. The basics of supply and demand dictate that when there is a shortage or percieved shortage of supply then demand rises. Likewise, when demand rises so does price. If a hurricane, in this case Ike, causes damage to oil refineries we will likely see a rise in prices. This is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Panic causes price rises. Period.</p>
<p>The basics of supply and demand dictate that when there is a shortage <em>or percieved</em> shortage of supply then demand rises. Likewise, when demand rises so does price. If a hurricane, in this case Ike, causes damage to oil refineries we will likely see a rise in prices. This is natural and expected as it creates scarcity.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, what is also natural and expected is that people will speculate as to the effects of events, lending a pesemistic weight to the equation. This negative slant causes people to try to &#8220;beat the rush&#8221;, causing a spike in demand. This spike in demand causes a shortage in supply, thus hiking up prices.</p>
<p>STOP SPECULATING THAT HURRICANES WILL CAUSE SHORTAGES! You are causing the price to rise for everyone. If you are really worried about such things stock up over time and/or well in advance.</p>
<p>This is my rant for the month.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>July 2008 CPI Data Out</title>
		<link>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/08/21/july-2008-cpi-data-out/</link>
		<comments>http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/08/21/july-2008-cpi-data-out/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:17:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason McDonald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics and Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/08/21/july-2008-cpi-data-out/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation. If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.</p>
<p>If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/06/18/may-cpi-data-out/">May 2008 post</a>. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the <a href="http://www.mcdonaldland.info/2008/07/22/june-2008-cpi-data-out/">June 2008 post</a>.</p>
<p>The inflation so far for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 213.304 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 4.84%<br />
National = [ ( 219.964 - 210.036) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 4.73%</p>
<p>Average month to month change in 2008:</p>
<p><center></p>
<table style="font-family: Arial,Sans-Serif; font-size: 10pt; text-align: center">
<tr>
<th style="padding-left: 15px"></th>
<th style="padding-left: 15px">National CPI</th>
<th style="padding-left: 15px">Southeast CPI</th>
<th style="padding-left: 15px">National ?</th>
<th style="padding-left: 15px">Southeast ?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">12/2007</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">210.036</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">203.457</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">01/2008</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">211.080</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">204.510</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.044</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.053</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">02/2008</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">211.693</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">205.060</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">0.613</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">0.550</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">03/2008</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">213.528</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">206.676</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.835</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.616</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">04/2008</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">214.823</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">208.085</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.295</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.409</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">05/2008</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">216.632</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">210.006</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.809</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.921</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">06/2008</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">218.815</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">212.324</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">2.183</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">2.318</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">07/2008</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">219.964</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">213.304</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">1.114</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px">0.980</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" align="right"><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">1.413</td>
<td style="padding-left: 15px; font-weight: bold">1.407</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p></center>Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:</p>
<p align="center">Est. Southeast CPI = 213.304 + ( 5 * 1.407 ) = 220.339<br />
Est. National CPI = 219.964 + ( 5 * 1.413 ) = 227.029</p>
<p>Estimated inflation for 2008:</p>
<p align="center">Southeast = [ ( 220.339 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 8.30%<br />
National = [ ( 227.029 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 8.09%</p>
<p>Getting better. Still a ways to go back to &#8220;normal&#8221; though.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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