mcdonaldland

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.

If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 post.

The inflation so far for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 213.304 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 4.84%
National = [ ( 219.964 - 210.036) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 4.73%

Average month to month change in 2008:

	National CPI	Southeast CPI	National Δ	Southeast Δ
12/2007	210.036	203.457
01/2008	211.080	204.510	1.044	1.053
02/2008	211.693	205.060	0.613	0.550
03/2008	213.528	206.676	1.835	1.616
04/2008	214.823	208.085	1.295	1.409
05/2008	216.632	210.006	1.809	1.921
06/2008	218.815	212.324	2.183	2.318
07/2008	219.964	213.304	1.114	0.980
Average			1.413	1.407

Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:

Est. Southeast CPI = 213.304 + ( 5 * 1.407 ) = 220.339
Est. National CPI = 219.964 + ( 5 * 1.413 ) = 227.029

Estimated inflation for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 220.339 - 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 8.30%
National = [ ( 227.029 - 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 8.09%

Getting better. Still a ways to go back to “normal” though.